Outside the Box

Yahoo! Sports: Major League Baseball - Manny's choices

Mike Mussina is likely to have a very big year for the Yankees next season. For one reason, Mussina suffered from the worst run support in the AL last season. That's largely a result of happenstance -- it's not exactly his fault, right? -- and the odds are remarkable that the same pitcher would get such poor run support two years in a row. After ERA, run support can be a very helpful indicator of a pitcher's won-lost record. (See Mike Hampton, 1999.)

I'm not really quibbling with what Tom Verducci wrote here. I'm quibbling with the mindset that says Mussina didn't have a big year in 2000. He had a good ERA, lots of innings and an 11-15 record. I think Verducci is focusing on the last item, when it is the first two that he should be worried about. He even says that run support dramatically affects win-loss records, but isn't able to take the next step that says, "Run support isn't in the pitcher's control, so we shouldn't evaluate him based on his win-loss record." And that isn't even that far of a leap to make.

One of the challenges of baseball analysts is breaking folks of their slavish dependence on win-loss records. They just aren't a good indicator of pitcher ability or performance. Just like team win-loss records aren't a good indicator of batting ability and shouldn't be used in MVP award voting.

Later in the section, he comments that the Orioles were 7-11 following losses started by Mussina and 8-8 after wins started by Mussina. I'm still trying to piece together what information that provides me with.