Outside the Box

Yahoo! Sports: MLB - Yankees and Jeter negotiate by phone, break until next week


Is Jeter worth this sort of dough? Is Jeter worth $189m over 10
years? Would I do this deal if I were the Yankees. It is a tough
question and I don't believe there is an easy answer.

Let's look at what Jeter has done so
far. He'll be 27 next year. He is a three-time all star and has
not been MVP, though I believe he was more valuable than I-Rod (and
behind Pedro) in 1999. Four WS rings, about 150 games every season.
1008 hits and a career line of .322/.394/.468. He has been in the top
10 in OPS just once (a fifth place finish). As for his fielding (I'll
tread lightly here), not one metric other than anecdotal portrays him
as an above average fielder. Most have him somewhat below average.

Jeter is not in the same offensive class as Nomar and A-Rod. Nomar is
10th in active OPS, while A-Rod is 16th. I'm guessing Jeter is in the
50's or so. Jeter is a great offensive player, and except for those
two there isn't a shortstop I'd rather have. His defensive numbers
also aren't quite as good either.

I know I'm going to get flamed on the defensive questions, and you can
only bring up anecdotal evidence if you've also seen Rey Sanchez
play 80 games. In 80 fewer defensive innings, Sanchez had 12 fewer
putouts (Jeter's vaunted flyball abilities), but 98 more assistsa and
29 more double plays. Jeter has never had 100 DP's in a season,
(switching gears here) Cal Ripken had over 100 10 of 11 seasons.
A-Rod turned 122 last year, Nomar turned just 65 last year, but is
better on a per game basis for his career. You can wave away the
evidence if you like, but it is out there.

Speaking of Rey Sanchez, I was at Fenway for a Royals game and Jim
Furtado and I had been trying to convince Gary that Jeter wasn't a
great defensive player (of course, a nearby Yankee fan offered his
opinion). Some Red Sox, I don't know whom, smoked a grounder up the
middle for an apparent single. Rey Sanchez somehow reached the ball,
didn't dive and didn't really appear to struggle and easily tossed out
the runner. A great shortstop isn't made by the spectacular plays, a
great shortstop makes the routine plays, he makes a few spectacular
plays, but most of all he makes the tough plays look easy.

I watching a game on TV in person allows a viewer to analyze only a
part of player's defense. A viewer can pretty accurately assess a
player's "hands" and throws. Do they make the plays they get to? The
truly great defensive players are in motion well before your eyes
travel to them. If you have season tickets for a Braves game, watch
the center fielder for the entire game and compare Andruw's jumps to
the opposition. I would guess that he has two or three steps on the
typical center fielder. A fun comparision might be with the Reds in
town. Unless you study the position like that you really can't assess
a player's range. I'm freaking slow and I make some spectacular plays
in slow pitch because of it not because I'm more talented than most.

My theory on Jeter's defense is that he handles the routine plays, so
he doesn't have any obvious flaws like Knoblauch or Jose Offerman, he
is also good at acrobatic plays, so he appears to do more than he
actually does. It would be interesting to find out how many seeing
eye singles the Yankees give up each year.

So what does the future hold? Jeter's offense could go either way.
If he returns to 1999 levels, then he is a top ten player in MLB. If
not, he is somewhere between 20-40. I think 1999 may be his peak
(though it may be my Red Sox blood hoping that is the case). And I
expect the Yanks will move him to third within a few years. It is
going to become more and more obvious that he isn't a great defensive
shortstop. Now you have a top five third baseman, who isn't a
dominant offensive player at that position. I think he will be a Hall
of Famer. The rings, the 2500-3000 hits, etc. will guarantee that,
but I don't expect him to be in Garciaparra's and A-Rod's class
overall.

Right now, the Yanks are bidding against his expectation for free
agency. As I see it they have nothing to lose with letting him play
to free agency. Right now, the Yanks are offering gigantic dollars
for a premier franchise player. If he is in fact that dominant
offensive player, they can give him another year to prove it. If he
turns out to have a so-so offensive year, they may even say a few
dollars as teams decide he isn't quite so attractive a player.

Jeter will give the Yanks a right of refusal on any deal. Given
that, the Mets are the team that would most likely drive up the price
and hey wouldn't back up the money truck for A-Rod, I can't see the
price going much over what the current negotiations are at.

You can also argue that the Yanks have no choice, but to sign Jeter.
He is wildly popular and failing to sign him would blow a hole in
their PR and their team. Still, I think the Yanks can afford to play
a little chicken this year and see what happens.